October 22, 2006
It was not a Big East debut worth remembering for the Louisville Cardinals. Coming off fresh from a Final Four appearance the Cardinals flew into the Big East with a lofty ranking and they hype fit for the new kings of the conference. Even after repeated preseason warnings from their head coach Rick Pitino, the media around the nation placed Louisville high on their ballots. We all overlooked Pitino’s musings as coach-speak to motivate his young team and believed once the real season began, they would round into shape.
However, they ever quite rounded into shape last year. It was a tough year all around as it looked at times as they were physically beaten by the physical nature of the conference. Louisville literally limped home through the conference schedule with a 6-10 record and bowed out of the conference tournament on the opening night to Pittsburgh, in a game they actually trailed by over 30-pts in the first half.
During the season injuries to Taquan Dean, David Padgett, Juan Palacios, Chad Millard, Brian Johnson, etc kept the Cardinals from playing at full strength. To make matters even more difficult, Dean has graduated and Bryan Harvey, Chad Millard and Brian Johnson have since decided to transfer.
Even with those personnel losses, there is a different sense of optimism from coach Rick Pitino with this year’s team. He has referred to his squad as a ‘blue-chip stock’ that was ready to go ‘up and up.’ He has lined up a much more challenging out of conference schedule with the likes of Kentucky, Miami, Arizona, UMass, Dayton and St. Joe’s (although, they only leave Freedom Hall twice in their first 14 games and neither is a road test).
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Still, questions remain, and again it centers around the health of his team. Last year it was Juan Palacios suffering leg and ankle injuries in an August pick-up game that nagged him throughout the season. This year it was Brandon Jenkins, the team’s only senior to suffer a similar fate. Jenkins is recovering quicker than anticipated and is no longer expected to miss the entire season, but he is still a few weeks away from joining his teammates in practice. Recently, Pitino announced that David Padgett was at 5% health in preparation for the season and does not anticipate a significant contribution from him until at least January. Again, this could be a coach speaking conservatively, or, the best case scenario with no additional setbacks. Also, freshman Earl Clark has missed about a week so far with a stress fracture in his foot, which is not considered serious, but will it be a nagging injury through the season?
Then there is the case of Derrick Caracter, the beefy UL freshmen that has been on the nation’s watch list since an 8th grade basketball prodigy was discovered at the elite summer camps. Caracter has already been suspended by the NCAA for the first three games of the season for accepting loans from a ‘family friend’ that was once employed by a sports agent. However, Pitino still does not allow Caracter to practice with the team because he has ’10 years of bad habits to break’ as he tries to get his weight down to 270 lbs and 10% body fat. Caracter misses, by a lot, the target weight the staff had asked him to report to school at, and until he gets into ‘Pitino Shape’, Caracter watches his teammates practice. I would not expect this punishment to last much longer, but it is something to keep an eye on. Caracter is going to be pushed by Pitino, we will see how he responds, it is likely to be the best thing for the talented frosh, but could be cause of some rocky times.
In Caracter’s absence and with Padgett recovering, it will give additional time and attention to the development of junior 6’10 center Terrance Farley and 7’0 sophomore center Jonathan Huffman. Last year the pair were in a similar situation as Padgett, Palacios and Brian Johnson were all slowed with injuries. Neither were able to produce much, but Farley definitely showed some flashes of potential later in the season and led the team in blocks in conference place. Huffman only appeared in two Big East games. Once Caracter gets his weight to where the staff wants it to be, he will hold the spot until Padgett works his way back into the line-up, which might not even be this season, as a starter. Caracter is a space-eater inside with excellent hands, footwork and touch in the post. He will definitely be ready to make an impact physically, but it is the mental aspect of the game and the physical Big East against players equal in size and strength to Caracter. If he shows dedication to putting in the time and effort the staff is asking to improve his all-around game, he will be one of the better freshmen in the conference, and possibly the best frontcourt newcomer this year.
At the power forward spot is junior Juan Palacios who is one of the most talented players in the Big East, at least in terms of potential. Last year, we will give Palacios the benefit of the doubt that his preseason ankle and leg injuries took a big toll on his performance, which was, to be kind, uninspiring for a player of his potential. A sculpted 6’8, 250 lbs, Palacios has frustrated his coach by not taking more of an assertive approach in the paint and preferring to stay out on the perimeter on offense. Last year in the Big East he averaged 10 PPG and 5.5 rebounds a contest, about 50% of the production that was hoped from him. He shot just 42% from the floor and less than 30% (on 54 attempts in 16 conference games) from 3-pt range. In the last regular game of the season, Palacios scored 29 pts at UConn, so he definitely looked healthy. The very next game against Pittsburgh he disappeared going just 1-8 from the field in 32 minutes of action in the Big East tournament loss. That type of inconsistency needs to be improved this season, a key season for Palacios.
On the wing the Cardinals boast one of the most exciting athletes in the conference with sophomore Terrence Williams, who averaged 8 PPG and 4 rebounds as a freshmen in the Big East. Williams can run and jump with the best in the league and showed the ability to get hot from the perimeter, however, he does need to improve upon his 25% shooting clip from beyond the arc because the 3-ball is still such an important part of a Pitino offense. Also looking for time at the wing, when healthy, is 6’9 freshmen Earl Clark out of New Jersey. Scouts have always loved Clark because you have a 6’9 player that can handle and pass like a point guard and has the size of a power forward. Clark will need to fine-tune those skills, especially with his shooting, but this is a player with an exciting future and the ability to play many roles.
Last year the Cardinals were hurt even more with the in-season ankle injury to senior Taquan Dean, pressing freshmen point guard Andre McGee into more action than originally thought. McGee will use that experience this year and show, as Pitino believes, that he is one of the conference’s most improved players. McGee has worked hard to be in better shape and learning the role of playmaker will go a long way in improving the Louisville offense. As mentioned earlier, Rick Pitino loves the 3-pt shot in his offense and having at least four players on the floor that can shoot it from beyond the perimeter is a big key to his offensive efficiency. Last year, in the Big East, the Cards shot just 33.6% from beyond the arc. Take away Dean and the other players no longer with the team, and it was just 31% from the players returning. This will be a stat that MUST improve from the Louisville perimeter players to have their offense working like Pitino will want it to. A couple freshmen hope to make their mark in improving those numbers and with Brandon Jenkins on the shelf early in the season, they are going to get a lot of time in showing if they can. Edgar Sosa, from NYC, is a sweet shooting combo guard that is still learning the intricate roles of a point guard, but he can definitely shoot the ball. The other is Wisconsin native Jerry Smith who is another talented guard that can get out in transition and score. It is always a little tougher for freshmen to be counted on to make shots, but this pair, although they both stand just 6’1, will be asked to do the difficult task of stepping up and hitting shots. Smith has some impressive bulk to him and is more of a slasher, but McGee and Sosa did show some nice results from deep on an exhibition trip to Canada earlier this fall.
Brandon Jenkins is the lone senior on the team and expected team leader. His injury was a big blow to the Cardinals but early signs are encouraging of him returning to full healthy by the holidays. They will need his steady hand with the ball and knowledge of Pitino’s defensive system. The younger players will have him as a crutch to lean on, let’s just hope no other players need a crutch as the season moves on, any more injuries could derail their season once again, before it begins.
As expected when Louisville made the move from Conference USA to the Big East they were pushed into a position of high demand for TV games in the conference. This year is no different as the Cardinals draw Connecticut and Marquette as their home and home games. They do draw a little bit of a break having to play South Florida two times. Their home and away schedules are pretty consistent, so they should have some success home and away.
Again, there is a lot of talent on this Louisville team, but with injured veterans Brandon Jenkins and David Padgett, they are already starting out with a big question mark again. While missing those two, the other nine scholarship players consist of seven freshmen and sophomores, so they will be young once again. They have talent, no doubt, but as they found out last year, the Big East is an unforgiving league and every night is a new battle on the floor, home or away. Getting Juan Palacios performing consistently at a high level night in and night out is the key to the season. They freshmen are talented to make contributions, but it is tough to rely on them on a consistent basis. Improvements from McGee and Williams are also where their upside for the season depends on.
Projected Big East record: 10-6
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