Louisville Season Preview

Rick Pitino returns to the Big East, this time, the former Providence College coach, brings his Louisville Cardinals, fresh off a Final Four appearance, from Conference USA to the conference. It is an exciting time for Louisville fans with a major conference for their rising football program and now their beloved basketball program will compete on the biggest stage possible day in and day out.

Last season, coach Pitino and his Cardinals got things done in the NCAA tournament. After a couple dissapointing early exits the two previous seasons, Louisville made their way into the Final Four in impressive fashion, including a 20-pt comeback in an overtime win against future Big East brother West Virginia in the Elite 8.

Louisville cruised through their final Conference USA season with a 14-2 conference record and a conference tournament championship. They finished the season with a 33-5 mark and are now ready to do battle in the deep Big East.

Louisville only returns three of their top 8 scorers and they also lose three of their top four rebounders. Larry O'Bannon, Ellis Myles and Otis George have all graduated, Francisco Garcia turned pro and Lorenzo Wade has left the program. On top of that, Juan Palacios, widely expected to step into a starring role this season, has been sidelined the entire preseason with an ankle injury. His status could cause their stay among the top four in the conference very tedious.

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But, the cupboard at Louisville is not bare. Rick Pitino is a dynamic recruiter and selling the positives of his program in the Big East is something recruits are buying. There is talent returning and talent coming in and Louisville should remain among the top programs, but they must get, and stay, healthy.

Their leading returnee is senior guard Taquan Dean. As a junior, Dean averaged 14 PPG, while shooting a very deadly 45% from 3-pt range in 273 attempts. With the loss of Garcia and O'Bannon, Dean is expected to carry more of the load and his numbers should increase. One thing to remember, last year Dean suffered through a painful sports hernia which kept him from practicing for long periods of time. Coach Pitino has remarked on the amazing difference in athleticism being shown by Dean this year, when compared to last season. Dean is also a fantastic defensive player, willing to play a lockdown role on the perimeter. He is more natural in the shooting guard slot, but can help out at the point when needed. A key to his success this year could be how much he can play off the ball, more on that next. Dean also managed 4 rebounds a game from the guard position.

A quiet key to the Louisville season is who joins Dean in the backcourt. The most likely candidate is junior guard Brandon Jenkins, a 6'3 Detroit native. Jenkins averaged 5 PPG last year in 20 minutes of action. He is another good defender on the perimeter that will have to get more offensive minded to make additional playing time work in his favor. Confidence in his outside shot and developing a consistent midrange game will go a long way for Jenkins. A player the Louisville faithful has been very excited about in the preseason is freshmen PG Andre McGee. McGee is a PG that could move Dean to the 2-guard slot the majority of the time. It might take the 5'11 freshmen a little time to adjust to the college game, but he will see plenty of action early on to help in the transition. A very good ballhandler, he will have to learn Pitino's system on the fly to unseat Jenkins in the starting mix. He is excellent at pushing the ball in transition and finding the open man. He could be the first true PG at Louisville for Pitino. Another freshmen guard, 6'4 Bryan Harvey, who like McGee, hails from California, should also provide an added threat. At this time, Pitino has asked Harvey to concentrate on his academics and to shore up his grades before returning to the team. Whether he is back for the season opener, the second semester or at all is still up in the air at this time.

How Pitino decides to form his starting unit is a bit of a mystery, too. He could go with the three guards: McGee, Dean and Jenkins. Or, when everyone is healthy, he could go big with Palacios on the wing. Another freshmen in the mix for a wing spot is atheltic Terrence Williams. Williams is a 6'6, 200 lb small forward from Seattle, WA that brings tremendous athletic ability to the floor. A high-rising slasher that will excel, in time, in the full court style of coach Pitino. Another player that will play a big role in the make-up of the rotation is Brian Johnson. Returning from a knee injury, the 6'9 245 lb redshirt-freshmen has all the tools to succeed in the paint in the Big East. He has been slow to recover from the knee problems that forced him to miss last season, the last surgical procedure was the delicate microfracture surgery on his ailing knee. At this point, the Louisville staff is bringing Johnson along slowly, he played just 11 minutes in their opening exhibition game, but was very active in his time. If he can get closer to 100% by conference time, it would be a big lift and provide Louisville with another set of line-up options.

With Johnson in the mix again, the Louisville front court could become a big strength of their team, once they get healthy. As mentioned earlier, Juan Palacios, one of the top sophomores in the country, is still hobbled from a summer ankle injury that could keep him out of action until conference time. As a freshmen, Palacios contributed nearly 10 PPG and over 6 rebounds. Palacios is a skilled big man, standing at 6'8 and weighing in over 250 lbs, he is more likey to float on the outside than bang away underneath. Pitino made it a point of emphasis last season to encourage Palacios to be more assetive inside and towards the end of the season, he seemed to be getting his point across. Palacios can use his ability to handle and shoot from the outside and his big body and touch inside to be a very dangerous combination player. He also could play the wing for the Cardinals and it is something he cited as a key factor in his decision to attend Louisville, being promised that opportunity. One of the reasons I have Louisville ahead of some of the other teams very close to them in the standings is the hope that Palacios will be full strength by the conference season.

Another player trying to get back to full strength is former Kansas Jayhawk David Padgett. Not only will Padgett have to work himself back into shape from missing much of the preseason with a foot injury, but he will need to shake off the rust from a lack of game activity as he sat out last season under NCAA transfer rules. Padgett had a very good freshmen year at Kansas, averaging over 6 PPG and 4 rebounds and leading the Jayhawks in blocked shots. The 6'10, 250 lb C/F has all the tools to be a star in the college game. He has good hands and feet and runs the floor very well. He can face up and hit a jumper or use a variety of post moves to score inside. He is the type of mobile front court player that should fit in very well in the Louisville system and he is a very well-rounded player. Also in the post, the Cardinals can turn to sophomore Terrence Farley or freshmen Jonathan Huffman. Farley saw limited time last season and was briefly dismissed from the team. However, he returned to the good graces of the staff and put in a lot of work this summer in an effort to compete for a spot in the rotation. The 6'10, 250 lb C got the start in the exhibition opener, but was not much of a factor in his 19 minutes. Huffman is a 7'0, 220 lb athletic big man that needs to gain strength, but has great upside once his body matures to match his athletic ability and size. Once the rest of the front-line players (Johnson, Palacios and Padgett) return to health, Huffman will probably see only mop-up duty and Farley is likely to see limited time as well. Not too many teams have this much depth in the front court, and these guys will get some valuable experience early on. 6'8, 220 lb freshmen Chad Millard is another candidate for the front court. At 6'8 Millard is much more comfortable standing out at the 3-pt line and looking to let one fly. However, he surprised many by pulling in the 3rd most minutes (behind just Dean and Jenkins) in the exhibition opener. It will come as a suprise if Mallard is more than a designated shooter come Big East time this year, as he needs to add strength to defend inside and hit the boards and get more confidence in his ability to put the ball on the floor to play on the wing. Also, getting the start in the exhibition game is former walk-on Perrin Johnson. Johnson also started 4 games last year and is a key reserve that is always ready to play. Johnson and another walk-on, Brad Gianiny, both have the trust of the Louisville staff and Cardinal teammates to perform when called on and add great depth and practice competition.

Louisville, especially with Rick Pitino as their coach, is a very high profile team and the Big East television schedule will feature the Cardinals in their first season. Their schedule bears that out with mirror games scheduled with Connecticut, Villanova and Cincinnati. Louisville does not face Georgetown or Seton Hall this season. They also travel to face Syracuse and West Virginia in their only match-ups with them. So, the schedule is definitely a tough slate.

When healthy, a starting unit of Taquan Dean, Brandon Jenkins, Juan Palacios, Brian Johnson and David Padgett could rival anyone in the country and would be enough to place the Cardinals this high in the rankings. Add in talented freshmen in key positions like Andre McGee at PG and Terrence Williams on the wing with front court depth in Terrence Farley and Jonathan Huffman to go with additional depth in the form of Bryan Harvey and Chad Millard, and you see the potential that this Louisville team has. Current injuries to Palacios, Padgett and Johnson with the academic question marks in regards to Harvey, you get a feel for the questions that also will plague this team. I am betting, that by the time the conference season rolls around, the injuries are behind them. If that is the case, I like the different options this team can turn to on the floor to match-up with nearly everyone in their schedule. If the injuries persist, then they will fall back into the pack in a deep and unforgiving Big East.

Projected Big East Record: 11-5

Hate to qualify a projection, but if Palacios is not 100% for the conference schedule and Johnson is not ready to play 25+ minutes in his place...9-7 could be the closer mark...but, I am going to bet they get healthy, which would leave them with less questions than some of the other teams. It is a given that Rick Pitino will have talent, the question is, will they be healthy?