BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Louisville @ Villanova

February 3, 2007


One of the things I am looking forward to most on Superbowl Weekend is seeing Louisville and Villanova hook up in Philadelphia. Louisville has thrust themselves back into the mix in the conference and for an NCAA tournament bid by winning four in a row and six of seven in Big East play after opening conference play with a loss at Notre Dame. They still need to improve some of their computer numbers, especially their RPI, and winning on the road against Villanova would help a lot.

Villanova is a strange team, although they are just 3-5 in the Big East, they possess some of the better computer and RPI numbers in the country. However, if they keep losing, their conference record might be the biggest black markon their tournament resume.

I do not think it has been any accident that Louisville has enjoyed a four-game winning streak since Andre McGee returned to the mix after a knee injury looked to wipe out his sophomore season. McGee has not put up great numbers since his return, but for a team that has struggled so mightily with injuries the last year and a half, having him and Brandon Jenkins in the backcourt to help freshmen Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith can not be overlooked. Another ingredient to their turnaround also might be the absence of Derrick Caracter. The continuing saga of their enigmatic freshman big man seemed to be a distraction since September for the club, but they seemed to have been moving on without him, although his return could come at anytime, as could another departure.

Villanova had a nice little run going with wins over Notre Dame, Texas and Providence. Although their best player Curtis Sumpter was limited in the majority of time in those games, not suiting up t all for Texas, the Wildcats came together and looked to be a team on the verge of making a run. However a tough loss on the road to Notre Dame and another one at home to Pittsburgh has Villanova taking another step back. Against Pittsburgh they did get 21 pts and 9 rebounds from Sumpter who definitely looked healthier, but in each game they let healthy 2nd half leads slip away.

Both teams like to get out and push tempo with defensive pressure. Sometimes neither of them will look very pretty in doing so as their games can become a little ragged, especially since Louisville is not one of the better shooting teams in the conference, but they both use their athletic ability to chase down loose balls and get rebounds.

The key for Villanova is to slow down Scottie Reynolds. That is right, slow down one of their own. Against Pittsburgh Reynolds seemed to be going too fast at all times that he went up for wild shots and turned the ball over, he looked nothing like the mature beyond his years point guard that we started to get used to seeing. With Sumpter getting healthier and a nice stream of front court players to match inside with David Padgett and Juan Palacios, this is a good match-up for Villanova if Reynolds makes proper decisions and Mike Nardi and Sumpter to be the senior leaders on their home floor they need.

For Louisville to get a road win against a similar team they need to shoot well. Terrence Williams, David Padgett and Juan Palacios need to make the most of their opportunities and score at a high effenciency rate as Villanova will look to pressure their young guards. I think this Louisville team is coming together very well, but they are running into a desperate team on the road in this one.

NBE Blogger Prediction: Villanova 67 Louisville 62