2008-2009 PREVIEW: 1) LOUISVILLE

November 9, 2008


When Rick Pitino publicly says this could be his most talented team since coming to Louisville, you tend to take notice. After all, he has already had a Final Four team and last year’s club reached the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament before falling to North Carolina in the Regional Final since taking over as head coach of the Cards.

So, after reviewing fifteen other Big East teams for the 2008-2009 season, we have settled in on Louisville as our preseason #1 club. The Cards edge out Connecticut for the designation as the team to beat in the country’s toughest conference, but the teams really could be titled #1 and #1-A.

Rick Pitino has a squad with an NBA caliber frontcourt and an interesting mix in the backcourt. If a point guard emerges willing to take control of the team and make those around him better, then this Card squad should have a little bit of everything needed to challenge nationally for a title.

With point guard the biggest question mark heading into the season, the health of Terrence Williams had many around the program holding their breath when he crumpled to the floor this preseason with a knee injury. Original fears of a torn ACL were quelled after an MRI revealed a lesser tear. Williams returned to practice this week and should easily be at 100% in plenty of time for Big East battles.

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Comings:

The new big man on campus at Louisville is 6-foot-8 freshman Samardo Samuels. The 240 pound manchild out of St. Benedict’s Prep (NJ) was a McDonald’s All-American last season. He has the physical stature to hold his own in the Big East from the get-go.

Joining Samuels as newcomers in the frontcourt are Terrence Jennings, an athletic 6-foot-10 C/F from Notre Dame Prep (MA) and IMG Academy product, via St. Louis (MO) Jared Swopshire, a 6-foot-7 forward. The final true freshman newcomer is 6-foot-4 guard from Evansville (IN) Kyle Juric.

Also making their Louisville debuts this season will be Reginald Delk, who is eligible after sitting out last season following a transfer from Mississippi State, and George Goode, a redshirt freshman from Missouri who sat out last season due to academics.


Goings:

The door out of Louisville was a bit busy as well. Leading scorer David Padgett completed an injury filled career with an excellent season. His importance to the team was always made clear publicly by his coach. Also graduating was Terrance Farley who saw limited action in the frontcourt in his four year career with the Cards.

The final member of last year’s team not around this season is the walking distraction that was more commonly known as Derrick Caracter. The uber-talented, but rarely motivated Caracter drove coach Pitino crazy over two years with on again and off again distractions. The final straw seemed to happen several times, but as his teammates were preparing for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, Caracter spent his time talking about the NBA and his future plans.


Net Impact:

The loss of Padgett is definitely something that should not be overlooked. Although Samuels will likely put up numbers that will likely surpass Padgett’s, it was the full package that Padgett brought to the Cards that is unlikely to be replaced this season. However, Samuels is the real deal and will bring a tremendous amount of pure talent and production, even as a freshman.

The loss of Caracter is likely to be addition by subtraction, but it is taking a big chunk of their frontcourt production from a season ago out of the mix. Freshman forwards Goode and Swopshire will find things tough in the Big East this year and Jennings also needs to get stronger, but he should play a solid role.

The addition of Delk’s shooting ability will help the Cards in a key area of their attack. Kuric is also an excellent shooter, but his impact is more looked at to be down the road for the Cards.

The addition of Samuels is big for the Cards and should be enough to push them forward this season as a team.


2008-2009 Backcourt Outlook:

When you look at the Louisville line-up the biggest area of concern is at the point guard. Having an efficient and consistent floor general increases a team’s NCAA basketball odds of a successful season greatly. While the duo of Andre McGee and Edgar Sosa is more than adequate for a successful team, if one of these two, especially Sosa, can take the reigns of this team in the manner Rick Pitino would like then this is definitely a team with the potential to be special.

Sosa averaged 7.6 points a game last year while getting just over 21 minutes a game. Sosa tends to get caught up in his own offensive chances too much and his numbers of 1.8 assists to 1.5 turnovers a game needs to improve, both in terms of more assists and a better ration. Sosa has plenty of talents, but running a team in the way his coach wants is the area he needs to improve in the most.

McGee, a senior, played just over 20 minutes, averaging 6.5 points and 1.9 assists compared to 0.9 turnovers a contest. McGee is more consistent with the ball, but is not the offensively talented lead guard that Sosa is. Coach Pitino wants his point guard to have the ability to be a dynamic scorer, but wants him to understand the role of team leader, too.

At the two-guard, junior Jerry Smith returns as the incumbent. Last year Smith averaged 10.7 points a game and hit a team-high 68 three-pointers at a 38% clip. Smith rebounded from a poor finish to the Big East season to hit 11 of 22 from beyond the arc in the NCAA Tournament where he averaged 13.5 points in the four games.

Joining Smith at the two-guard is Mississippi State transfer Reginald Delk, a nephew of former Kentucky guard Tony Delk who played for Rick Pitino at UK. Reginald is a 6-foot-4 guard who is a long-range shooting threat and he averaged over 9 points a game as a sophomore in the SEC in the 2006-2007 season, shooting 63-138 (38%) from the arc in 35 games. One scary stat, however, Reginald was 15-37 from the free throw line as a sophomore.

Rounding out the backcourt for the 2008-2009 Louisville Cardinals will be sophomore Preston Knowles, freshman Kyle Kuric and senior walk-on Will Scott. Knowles is a player that could find himself prominently in the mix for playing time this year. As a freshman, he averaged over 11 minutes a game from February through the close of the season, seeing more of a spike (13 minutes a game) in the postseason. Kuric is a promising young player that is likely to spend this year as mostly an observer behind the other more experienced players. Scott appeared in 27 games last year and his ability to make the perimeter shot will continue to find him minutes here and there under coach Pitino.


2008-2009 Frontcourt Outlook:

Louisville is considered to have an NBA frontline this season with small forward Terrence Williams, power forward Earl Clark and center Samardo Samuels. It is a good bet that all three could be getting paid to play next year at this time in the NBA.

Williams looks to have made a quick recovery from his preseason injury scare. The highly athletic and strong 6-foot-6 senior has had three consistent years with the Cards, but he always seems to be leaving observers wanting a little more. As a junior, Williams averaged 11.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and a team-high 4.5 assists a game. Williams shot 41% from the field, a career best, but still struggled from the free throw line (57%) and relies too much on the three-ball (49-144), shooting 34% from the arc. Williams is a very good defender and fills the stat sheet, but the tools are there for more. This could be the season we see it.

At the power forward is the versatile and multi-talented Earl Clark. As a sophomore Clark began to consistently show the potential for greatness. He averaged 11.1 points and team-highs in rebounds (8.1) and blocked shots (1.7). After the season, against the advice of coach Pitino, Clark declared for the NBA draft and with his length, athletic ability and perimeter skills in a 6-foot-8, 220 pound body, plenty of NBA teams were interested. However, Clark surprised many by recanting and deciding to return to school. Expectations are high for the Cards this season and Clark’s decision to return is a very big reason why. Look for a big year from him this season.

The player probably in the spotlight the most this season for Louisville is 6’8 frosh Samardo Samuels. The 240 pound beast looks to be made for waging war in the paint in this conference. His broad shoulders and tree-trunk legs will help him find life in the lane during Big East contests a little more bearable than it is for most freshman. Pegged as the co-freshman of the year by the conference coaches in the preseason poll, Samuels is poised to have a season unlike most freshman post players in the Big East.

While point guard is a question, the Cards do have players with experience and past success in the Big East to at least share the position. Frontcourt depth on the other hand is a question due to complete inexperience. 6-foot-10 Terrence Jennings, 6-foot-8 George Goode and 6-foot-7 Jared Swopshire, all freshman, make up the personnel behind Williams, Clark and Samuels. While all three are talented and all three are likely to be solid role players this year, not having an experienced big man to plug a hole here and there could be a factor from time to time in the Big East. In fact, the frontcourt for Louisville is manned by four freshman out of the six players.


2008-2009 Team Outlook:

The 2008-2009 season brings high expectations for Rick Pitino and his Louisville Cardinals. Even though their first outing was far from impressive as they struggled to beat NAIA Georgetown College, it was likely the start Rick Pitino was hoping for to bring them down to earth just a bit.

Getting Terrence Williams fully healthy and getting the freshman some key experience as they will play big roles this season will be the immediate action items for November. The talent up and down the roster for this year’s club is impressive and you can see why coach Pitino favorably compares this group to any he has had at Louisville previously.

The one hope is for a point guard to emerge as the team leader, from there, everything could fall into place for a banner season at Louisville. It very well could be one with a Big East championship or a Final Four (or more) banner, we will see if they can reach their potential as a team, and not just as individuals.



2008-2009 Big East Prediction: 14-4