BIG EAST GAME PREVIEW: Villanova @ Louisville

January 5, 2005


When the new Big East was put together, this was a match-up that everyone was ready to see right away and the conference delivers in the first week of conference play. So far the home team has prevailed in all four conference games to date, will that trend continue?

Currently, Villanova is the #1 rated team in the Pomeroy Computer Ratings and the Pomeroy Computer expects a 9-pt win for the Wildcats over Louisville, their 42nd ranked team, in Freedom Hall tonight. One word of caution, that was the exact same pick the computer had with UConn over Marquette.

So far this season, Villanova has raced out to a 9-0 start and a #5 RPI rating versus a strength of schedule rank of 49. They are 3-0 against the top 50 and 5-0 overall against the top 100. Louisville, meanwhile, is off to an 11-1 start, albeit it against considerably less competition with a SOS rank of 191. They have yet to beat a top 50 team (losing at Kentucky) and are 2-1 against the top 100 to date.

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Villanova has yet to venture too far from home, leaving the state of Pennslvania just twice to play in nearby Trenton and Atlantic City against Rider and Longwood and played away from Philadelphia just one other time, at Bucknell. They had an impressive home win over Oklahoma on their campus and, as everyone knows, they use their 4-guard line-up to pressure the ball just over half court on defense and create open looks from the perimeter from their ability to breakdown defenses and dish to the open shooter.

Villanova is led by their two all-conference senior guards, Allan Ray and Randy Foye. Ray averages 20.4 PPG and is a true NCAA shooting guard. When he is on, he will hit shots from beyond the arc at will, where about 65% of his shot attempts come from. He also hits over 90% of his free throws. Foye averages 20.3 PPG and leads the team in rebounds (5.8/game) and assists (4.2/game) and has been playing like an All-American with his all-around game this year. Mike Nardi has improved his consistency this year, scoring nearly 13 PPG and shooting 49% from the floor and 46% from 3-pt range, both big improvements over last year. The fourth member of the 4-headed guard monster for Villanova is their energy man, Kyle Lowry. Lowry is averaging 10 PPG, 4 rebounds, almost 4 assists and leads the team with 1.8 steals a game in 24 minutes (he missed the large part of 2 games with a minor injury to skew the stats a little bit). These four account for 77% of Villanova's scoring output and they use senior Jason Fraser (5 PPG, 4 RPG), junior Will Sheridan (5 PPG, 5 RPG) and frosh Dante Cunningham (3 PPG, 4 RPG) in a rotation at the 5 and about 20 minutes at the 4, when they are not using their 4-guard look. Freshmen Shane Clark, who saw his first action of the season against Temple could also figure in this mix as time goes on, but I do not expect him to be much of a factor tonight.

With Louisville, we are just not exactly sure of what they have yet. They only have three returning scholarship players that see significant time and are led by senior Taquan Dean, their leading scorer at 16.7 PPG. Dean also averages over 6 rebounds a game and leads the team in assists (4.0/game). Dean shoots a lot (173 attempts on the year) and is off to a slow start, for him, at 38% from the floor and less than 35% from 3-pt range. The added responsibility has left him a little less effecient than in the past. The other three main players are junior Brandon Jenkins (12 PPG, 3 rpg, 3 apg and leads the team with 1.7 steals/game), sophomore transfer David Padgett(11.6 ppg, team leading 6.5 rpg, 2.4 apg and team high 1.5 blocks/game) and sophomore Juan Palacios (11 PPG, 6 rpg). Palacios and Padgett missed almost the entire preseason due to a variety of foot and ankle injuries that have led to them still rounding into shape, even as conference play begins. Athletic freshmen Terrence Williams leads their group of frosh with 7.6 PPG and 4.5 rebounds and frosh PG Andre McGee also sees plenty of action and adds 4 PPG. Highly regarded redshirt freshmen big man Brian Johnson has also been hobbled by knee problems, but gives the Cardinals some more depth up front. It is a tough match-up for him.

Lately, Louisville has been playing more and more zone defense, which is the right move, in my opinion, when playing Villanova, despite their ability to hit from the perimeter. A zone could be extended against Villanova, not worrying about a soft middle too much, and help with the dribble penetration against the Villanova guards. They have to keep from contracting too much and allowing the open perimeter look. Louisville should have a decided advantage on the boards. It will be interesting to see how the Louisville guards handle the Villanova on the ball pressure which works to force the offense to be run outside the comfort zone of their normal offense. I do think Louisville is a little suspect on their perimeter ball-handling as a team and Villanova will try to cause havoc here.

This is a really tough game to predict. I am not sure if Louisville has played a team that is this quick and this strong on the perimeter. Kentucky was a good test for them and they were never in the game, but this time, they are home. I think their zone will slow down the Villanova offense, which averages over 80 PPG, but I do not think their big men have the hunker-down, impose their will mentality to take advantage of a 4-guard line-up in the half court. A great shooting night from Dean would help, but the Wildcats offensive firepower will hit at the right time and their experience will show they can handle this tough spot.

NBE Blogger Prediction:

Villanova 74 Louisville 68

Please leave your prediction in the comments section!!

So far, the NBE Blogger is 3-1 picking games outright and 2-2 against posted spreads. Villanova is a 3-pt road favorite tonight.

Here are some game preview stories from around the net:

Rick Bozich of the Louisville Courier-Journal: Its Finally Time for the Real College Hoops Season.
Cards Open with a Biggie (Louisville C-J)
Card's Begin Murderer's Row (Lexington Herald-Leader)
Cardinals Defense Getting Better (Louisville C-J)
Nova vs Louisville a Revival Meeting (Philly Daily News)
First Big test for Villanova (Delaware County Times)